First Manchester

[Brickmill]

RE: First Manchester

(24/02/2019 21:21)gilesbus1 Wrote:  I think the issue with Oldham is a lot more complicated from what I understand much of the losses are here, because Metrolink flows right through and duplicates a number of routes therefore any buyer would face an uphill struggle also the bus depot property won't be available for long as its part of a town centre redevelopment scheme.

So someone would need to completely restructure it. It maybe that someone literally looks at profitable routes and de-registers the rest and lets TfGM pick up the pieces and then moves to much smaller premises or if an existing operator moves to another depot within their territory.

Also FirstGroup might try to restructure Oldham so it gets a better price before selling it onward.

The reaction of First to Metrolink Phase 3 has been somewhat different to Arriva and Stagecoach, as in there hasn't really been a reaction. There is still something like 14 buses an hour along Oldham Road (Mon-Sat daytime) and the 81 has actually been increased at the Manchester end. They have cut services to Shaw and beyond to Rochdale, but these were already in decline. Most other OM services aren't in competition with Metrolink, but one of the arguments for franchising has been both First and Stagecoach cutting local services instead of often, less profitable services to/from Manchester. This suggests that other Operators could take on some First services commercially, especially as TFGM simply won't have the budget - at least not in 2019/20.
This might leave First (or a buyer) with a leaner operation that would help with options of an alternative OC, but would it surpress the overall value. Also, bear in mind Re-development plans have a habit of dragging on for many years and often being cancelled due to various financial or legal reasons.